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奥帆基地水工结构物模试验的概率特性研究
刘德辅¹, 李奉利^1,2, 荆昆³, 姜云鹏⁴
1.中国海洋大学海洋防灾研究所;2.第29届奥林匹克运动会组织委员会帆船委员会(青岛);3.中交第一航务工程局第二工程公司;4.交通部天津水运工程科学研究所

摘要:

为确保第29届北京奥运会青岛帆船比赛顺利进行,针对奥帆基地波浪断面模型试验结果,引入多维联合概率分析理论,并应用随机模拟技术,进行结构浮托力和越浪量计算,进而给出可靠度及风险分析结果,新方法考虑到多种极端海洋环境条件对结构物的综合作用,给模型试验赋予了联合概率特征,结果更加科学合理。

关键词: 模型试验随机模拟技术浮托力越浪量联合概率

DOI：

分类号:

基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(50379051)

Probability characteristic study of physical model test of the Olympiad Sailing Games

Abstract:

According to hydraulic structure model test results of the XXIX Olympiad sailing games, considering the probability characteristic of physical modeling and joint probability of different extreme sea combinations, the stochastic simulation technique is applied to the analysis of sea environmental conditions and their corresponding output. Different return levels of sea environmental combinations are calculated to realize the joint probability characteristic of the model test results.

Key words: model test stochastic simulation technique buoyancy wave overtopping volume joint probability

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