引用本文:	郭云霞,侯一筠,齐鹏.中国东南沿海区域台风数值模拟与危险性分析[J].海洋科学,2020,44(4):1-12.

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中国东南沿海区域台风数值模拟与危险性分析
郭云霞^1,2,3,4, 侯一筠^1,2,3,5,4, 齐鹏^1,2,5,4
1.中国科学院海洋研究所, 山东青岛 266071;2.中国科学院海洋环流与波动重点实验室, 山东青岛266071;3.中国科学院大学, 北京 100049;4.中国科学院海洋大科学中心, 山东青岛 266071;5.青岛海洋科学与技术试点国家实验室海洋动力过程与气候功能实验室, 山东青岛 266237

摘要:

通过网格定点法对我国东南沿海区域性台风危险性进行了分析。利用对各网格点有影响的历史台风数据，建立了各网格点的台风关键参数的最优概率模型。利用Monte-Carlo方法产生每个网格点1 000年间的虚拟台风事件。采用Yan Meng （YM）风场模型模拟了100个历史台风的最大风速，通过使这些最大风速与观测的最大风速误差和最小，建立了一组新的计算最大风半径R_max和Holland气压参数B的公式，结果表明新的台风参数计算方案效果良好。利用新的参数计算方案、YM风场模型、特定地点的台风衰减模型以及合适的极值分布模型，预测了各个网格点不同重现期的极值风速，进而绘制了台风多发区域的设计风速图。最后研究了不同B模型、R_max模型和极值分布模型对预测的极值风速的影响。可以为结构抗风设计和台风防灾减灾提供新的参考。

关键词: Monte-Carlo模拟风场模型台风参数极值风速

DOI：10.11759/hykx20190826001

分类号:P732.3

基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目（2016YFC1402000，2018YFC1407003）；国家自然科学基金（U1606402，41421005）

Typhoon wind numerical simulation and risk analysis for southeast coastal region of China

GUO Yun-xia^1,2,3,4, HOU Yi-jun^1,2,3,5,4, QI Peng^1,2,5,4

1.Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China;2.CAS Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China;3.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;4.Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China;5.Laboratory for Ocean and Climate Dynamics, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao), Qingdao 266237, China

Abstract:

In this paper, the grid fixed-point method was used to analyze the typhoon risk in the southeast coastal region of China. Using the historical typhoon data for each grid, we established the site-specific statistical distributions of typhoons key parameters. A Monte-Carlo method was used to generate virtual typhoons of 1000 years for each grid. Yan Meng (YM) wind field model was adopted to simulate the maximum wind speeds of 100 historical typhoons. By minimizing the errors between these maximum wind speeds and the observed maximum wind speeds, a new set of formulas was established to calculate the radius to maximum winds (R_max) and Holland pressure profile parameter (B). The results show that the new parameter calculation scheme works well. Using the new scheme, YM wind field model, region-specific statistical models for the decay rate of typhoons after reaching land, and the extreme value distribution, we predicted the site-specific extreme wind speeds associated with various return periods and proposed a map of design wind speeds for the typhoon-prone coasts of China. Finally we investigated the effects of different B model, R_max model, and extreme value distributions on the predicted wind speed, which can provide a new reference for wind-resistant structural design and typhoon disaster prevention and mitigation.

Key words: Monte-Carlo simulation wind field model typhoon parameters extreme wind speed