引用本文:	朱庆光,倪文斐,高建华,贾建军,杨磊,龚绪龙,汪亚平.基于数值模拟与统计学方法的南黄海近岸沙脊与水道稳定性评价[J].海洋科学,2016,40(8):119-128.

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基于数值模拟与统计学方法的南黄海近岸沙脊与水道稳定性评价
朱庆光¹, 倪文斐², 高建华¹, 贾建军^3,4, 杨磊^5,6, 龚绪龙^5,6, 汪亚平¹
1.南京大学地理与海洋科学学院;2.University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science;3.国家海岛开发与管理研究中心;4.国家海洋局第二海洋研究所;5.江苏省地质调查研究院;6.国土资源部地裂缝地质灾害重点实验室

摘要:

以南黄海江苏岸外辐射沙脊群为对象, 基于已验证的该区域沉积动力学数值模型模拟近30 a(1979～2011年)的水下地形演化, 计算辐射沙脊区域海底地形年际变化标准偏差, 对沙脊和水道的地貌稳定性进行定量评估。研究发现, 地形变化标准偏差愈小, 地貌愈稳定; 标准偏差愈高, 地貌愈不稳定。定量地确定了南黄海辐射沙脊区域内沙脊与水道稳定性系数的时空分布, 发现主要淤积区域位于沙脊周围, 近岸沙洲有淤高的趋势; 主要侵蚀区位于水道, 沙脊间水道逐渐冲刷加深, 如西洋水道和黄沙洋水道。本研究提出的基于海底地形年际变化标准偏差确定地貌稳定性评估方法, 可为海岸陆架地貌稳定性研究、区域资源开发和环境保护等提供参考。

关键词: 沙脊潮汐水道地貌稳定性数值模拟标准偏差南黄海

DOI：10.11759/hykx20151008005

分类号:

基金项目:国家自然科学基金(41376044); 中国地质调查局地质大调查项目(1212011220005, 1212011014002)

Evaluating the geomorphological stability of coastal sand ridges and tidal channels in the southern Yellow Sea using numerical simulation and statistical methods

ZHU Qing-guang,NI Wen-fei,GAO Jian-hua,JIA Jian-jun,YANG Lei,GONG Xu-long,WANG Ya-ping

Abstract:

This study establishes a geomorphological evolution model for the radial sand ridge system off the Jiangsu coast. By calculating the standard deviation (std) of the inter-annual variability of terrain elevation data output from the model, a quantitative classification of geomorphological stability for the sand ridges and tidal channels is proposed. The relation between std and geomorphological stability shows that the higher the std is, the more unstable the landform is, and vice versa. The results indicate that the major siltation areas are around the sand ridges, especially some nearshore sand banks, while the areas of major erosion are in the tidal channels between the sand ridges (e.g., the Xiyang Channel, the Kushuiyang Channel). Based on the inter-annual variability std of the terrain elevation data, this quantitative analysis method for evaluating geomorphological stability shows potential for applicability and is significant to geomorphological research, regional resource exploitation, and environment protection on coastal continental shelves.

Key words: sand ridges tidal channels geomorphological stability numerical simulation standard deviation the southern Yellow Sea