| 摘要: |
| 基于政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第四次评估报告(AR4)中的海气耦合模式实验, 本文研究了温室气体辐射强迫达到4.5 W/m2
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| 关键词: 政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC) 耦合模式 东亚季风 评估 预测 |
| DOI：10.11759/hykx20130827003 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(2010CB428904) |
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| Comaprison of four coupling models in simulation and forecast analysis of the East Asian monsoon system |
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| Abstract: |
| In this paper, based on the ocean-atmosphere coupling model simulation experiment in the forth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4), the East Asia monsoon climate changes under the RCP4.5 future scenario were analyzed and the simulation results of four ocean-atmosphere coupling model were compared. Comparison results showed that all models can well simulate the East Asia monsoon climate characteristics, such as, the prevailing wind in winter and summer, the characteristics of the sea and land distribution and the season of precipitation and heat flux. However, there were also some differences between simulation results of each model, compared with the re-analysis data, higher simulated wind speed by FGOALS_s2. 0, and lower simulated precipitation by GFDL_CM3 were obtained. With comprehensive comparison, GFDL_CM3 model was the best model to simulate the climate changes in East Asia. Four models for the forecast of the future climate were relatively consistent: the overall trend of the future of East Asian monsoon is that summer monsoon circulation will enhance, wind in winter will weaken, and summer wind speed will increase about 3.7%. Precipitation will increase, especially on land, the addition of precipitation throughout the year will be about 4.62% in East Asia. In most of the East Asia, the heat flux has a tendency to increase, which is the result of the greenhouse effect enhancement. |
| Key words: Intergovern mental Panel on Climate change(IPCC) the coupling mode the East Asian monsoon assessment forecast |
