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| 无主漂油源集合预测方法研究 |
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高 松1,2, 黄 娟1,2, 白 涛1,2, 曹雅静1,2, 徐江玲1,2
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1.国家海洋局北海预报中心;2.山东省海洋生态环境与防灾减灾重点实验室
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| 摘要: |
| 采用基于“拉格朗日”粒子追踪方法的油粒子数值溯源模式, 引入天气预报中的“集合预报”方法, 考虑气象、海洋环境背景场误差因素, 研究无主溢油源的集合预测方法。对某次渤海中西部溢油溯源事件的数值模拟结果表明, 溢油源集合预测分析结果与溢油源实际调查情况相符, 表明无主漂油源集合预测方法科学、结论可信。 |
| 关键词: 溢油 溯源模型 集合预报 |
| DOI：10.11759/hyxk20120713002 |
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| 基金项目:国家海洋局青年海洋科学基金(2013207); 国家海洋局海洋溢油鉴别与损害评估技术重点实验室开放基金(201002); 国家海洋局北海分局海洋科技项目(2012A01) |
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| Study on the ensemble forecast of oil spilled sources |
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| Abstract: |
| Inthis paper, the tracing model of oil particle based on the theory of Lagrange method was studied.With reasonable design of the environmental background field, the model was used to simulatedifferent scenarios. The statistical distribution of the ensemble of oil particles was analyzed to determine the possible scope of the oil source. The tracing simulation of scenario of oil spill in Midwestern of the Bohai Sea in 2010 demonstrates that, the result of ensemble forecast is consistent with the actual survey, suggesting that our ensemble tracing model is reliable and operational scientifically. |
| Key words: oil spill tracing mode ensemble forecast |