引用本文:	郭衍游,侯一筠.海浪数值预报误差的统计分析[J].海洋科学,2010,34(1):65-68.

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海浪数值预报误差的统计分析
郭衍游¹, 侯一筠²
1.淮海工学院;2.中国科学院海洋研究所

摘要:

针对海浪资料同化中预报误差的统计性质难以确定的问题，利用WAVEWATCH Ⅲ和Topex/Poseidon(T/P)有效波高观测资料，对东中国海区的有效波高预报误差进行了统计分析。结果表明，预报误差符合正态分布；不同网格点的预报误差协方差随距离增长呈指数关系递减，并且空间上表现出弱各向异性；在预报模式空间网格为0.5°×0.5°条件下相关距离为3.0°～5.9°。

关键词: 海浪资料同化误差 WAVEWATCH

DOI：

分类号:

基金项目:中国科学院海洋环流与波动重点实验室开放基金资助项目(KLOCAW0806)；国家青年基金资助项目(40806011)

Statistical analysis of ocean wave numerical forecast error

GUO Yan-you,HOU Yi-jun

Abstract:

The statistical character of forecast error is a key problem in ocean wave data assimilation. In this paper, the WAVEWATCH Ⅲ forecast error of Significant Wave Height(SWH) was investigated by means of Topex/Poseidon(T/P) observations of SWH. The results show that: the forecast error is a normal distribution. The error covariance exponentially decreases with the increase of distance and shows a weak anisotropy. The correlation length is 3.0°～5.9° under the condition of numerical grid of 0.5° by 0.5°.

Key words: ocean wave data assimilation error WAVEWATCH