| 摘要: |
| 应用山东沿岸各海洋站（日照、青岛、乳山口、威海、烟台、龙口、羊角沟）最近几十年各年最高水位数据和极值Ⅰ型（Gumbel）分布理论，对山东沿岸多年一遇最高水位进行了概率计算。给出的各海洋站Gumbel理论曲线与实测值的经验频率之间符合较好（绝对误差在10 cm以下）。研究表明，应用极值Ⅰ型（Gumbel）理论对山东沿岸各海洋站多年一遇最高水位的概率推算是可靠的。这些结果对山东省近岸、近海海洋工程开发建设有一定参考意义。
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| 关键词: 多年一遇 最高水位 概率估计 耿贝尔方法 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（40676018）；山东908专项（SD-908-02-08） |
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| Computation of highest water levels of multiyear return periods along the coast of Shandong |
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LI Ming-jie,QI Peng,HOU Yi-jun
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| Abstract: |
| Based on annual highest water level data in the past decades from the ocean stations along the coast of Shandong peninsula, which are Rizhao, Qingdao, Rushankou, Weihai, Yantai, Longkou and Yangjiaogou, highest water levels of multiyear return periods along the coast of Shandong are calculated using the Gumbel curve method. It is shown that the theoretical the of Gumbel given in the paper and the empirical frequency from the data samples for every station agree well. It is concluded that the highest water levels of multiyear return periods for every station given in the paper are reliable, which are of significance to coastal and offshore engineering along Shandong peninsula.
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| Key words: Multiyear return periods highest water level probability estimate Gumbel method |
