| 摘要: |
| 马尼拉俯冲带地震作为高风险海啸源对中国华南沿海地区构成严重威胁，开展概率性海啸灾害评估有助于全面了解马尼拉俯冲带地震海啸能量的时空分布规律并指导南海海岸工程的设计及建设。本文针对马尼拉俯冲带五项不确定性参数的概率分布展开研究，应用逻辑树法设计地震海啸样本集，使用非静压海啸数值模型对所有样本情景进行传播模拟，最后通过概率计算得到南海全海域的海啸最大波幅超越概率曲线，并绘制100年和500年回归周期下南海概率性海啸最大波幅的空间分布。研究发现，100年一遇的海啸对我国南部沿海影响较低，潜在海啸的最大波幅最高可达0.7m，危险等级不超过Ⅱ级；500年一遇的海啸会对我国南部沿岸城市(如汕头、汕尾、香港和澳门等)造成最大波幅可能为2.5m左右的Ⅲ级海啸威胁，中沙群岛和西沙群岛沿岸出现最大波幅为3.1m的潜在海啸活动，东沙群岛受到了最大波幅有可能超过4.0m的海啸威胁，海啸危险等级均高达Ⅳ级。 |
| 关键词: 马尼拉俯冲带 地震海啸 非静压数值模拟 概率性灾害评估 中国南海 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目 |
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| PROBABILISTIC HAZARD EFFECTS OF SEISMIC TSUNAMI IN THE MANILA SUBDUCTION ZONE ONTO SOUTH CHINA COAST |
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LIU Jin-Wei, ZHAO Wen-Yu, Wei Xiao-Ran, ZHI Hong-Huan, LI Pei-Ling, BAI Ye-Fei
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Ocean College,Zhejiang University
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| Abstract: |
| The Manila subduction zone, as a high-risk seismic tsunami source, poses a serious threat to the coast of South China. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) will help to fully understand the temporal and spatial distribution of the Manila subduction zone seismic tsunami energy and guide the design and construction of the South China Sea Coastal Project. This paper studies the probability distribution of five earthquake uncertainty parameters in the Manila subduction zone and uses the logic tree method to design a catalog set of seismic tsunamis. The non-hydrostatic numerical model was used to simulate the propagation of all sample scenarios. Finally, the maximum tsunami amplitude hazard curves for the entire South China Sea were obtained by the probability calculation, and the spatial distribution of the maximum wave amplitude of the probabilistic tsunami in the South China Sea under the 100-year and 500-year regression period is plotted. It is found that the impact of the potential tsunami for the return periods of 100 years on China's southern coast is relatively low, with a maximum wave amplitude reaching 0.7m and a danger level not exceeding Class II. The tsunami for the return periods of 500 years possibly poses a level III threat to cities along the southern coast such as Shantou, Shanwei, Hong Kong, and Macao, with maximum amplitudes reaching approximately 2.5m. The potential tsunamis with a maximum amplitude of 3.1m occurred along the coasts of Zhongsha Islands and Xisha Islands, and the tsunamis with a maximum amplitude of more than 4.0m threatened Dongsha Islands possibly. The tsunami danger level for the Zhongsha, Xisha, and Spratly Islands is as high as level IV. |
| Key words: Manila subduction zone earthquake tsunami nonhydrostatic numerical model probabilistic hazard assessment South China Sea |