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利用输沙量预测现代黄河三角洲的面积增长
孙效功, 杨作升
青岛海洋大学河口海岸带研究所青岛 266003

摘要:

依据1976-1989年黄河亚三角洲的面积数据及其相应年份的利津站黄河来沙量，利用单输入，单输出的线性系统模型对黄河三角洲的面积增长进行动态预测研究。结果表明，这一线性系统模型能较好地反映黄河三角洲的面积增长规律，且优于灰色系统的GM（1，1）模型。

关键词: 现代黄河三角洲来沙量面积预测

DOI：

分类号:

基金项目:国家自然科学基金重大项目，9487005号

PREDICTION OF MODERN HUANGHE RIVER DELTA AREA INCREMENT BY USING THE SEDIMENT DISCHARGE

Sun Xiaogong, Yang Zuosheng

Institute of Estuarine and Coastal Studies, Ocean University of Qingdao, Qingdao 266003

Abstract:

Based on the modern Huanghe River Delta area data and the river sediment discharge data measured at the Lijin Hydrometric Station from 1976 to 1989, dynamic prediction of the delta area increment is made by using a single input and single output linear system model whose first order equation is as follows:

(For the equations please see the PDF file.)

Assuming the river’s course to be unchanged and using this equation, the predicted river-caused delta area increment from 1990 to 2000 will be about 250—350km². The calculated result also shows that the model used here can describe the regularity of the delta area increment with good fitting to the real area increment. The model is much better than the Grey System Model GM(1,l) used before.

Key words: Modern, Huanghe River Delta, Sediment discharge, Area increment prediction

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