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引用本文:张荣华.用于厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)研究的海气耦合模式综述:中间型和混合型模式.海洋与湖沼,2024,55(1):1-23.
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用于厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)研究的海气耦合模式综述:中间型和混合型模式
张荣华1,2
1.南京信息工程大学海洋科学学院 江苏南京 210044;2.崂山实验室 山东青岛 266237
摘要:
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO)是地球气候系统中最强的年际变率信号, 起源于热带太平洋海气相互作用过程, 并对全球的天气和气候等产生显著的影响。过去几十年来, 广泛、深入而细致的海气相互作用研究致力于发展和改进海气耦合模式以用于ENSO模拟和预测, 各种类型的海气耦合模式应运而生。经过半个多世纪的努力, ENSO数值模式及其应用已经取得了巨大进展, 包括已发展了一些高度理想化的概念(concept)模型来解释ENSO准周期性循环(包括正负反馈机制等); 同时也已发展了几类复杂程度不同的海气耦合模式并用于对ENSO的真实模拟和实时预测等研究, 尤其是已能提前6个月或更长时间对ENSO事件的发生和发展等进行有效的实时预测。其中最为复杂的模式是基于原始方程组的大气环流模式(Atmospheric General Circulation Models, AGCMs)与海洋环流模式(Oceanic General Circulation Models, OGCMs)等所组成的环流型耦合模式(Coupled General Circulation Models, CGCMs), 这类模式变量取为完全变量的形式(如总的海表温度场, 其可以分解为气候态部分和年际异常部分), 还考虑了尽可能详尽的物理过程及其参数化方案。中间型耦合模式(Intermediate Coupled Models, ICMs)是一类介于高度理想化概念模型与复杂的环流型耦合模式之间的简化模式, 其对应的控制方程组采用距平形式, 直接取大气和海洋年际异常场作为预报变量(如海表温度年际异常), 而相应的气候平均态部分则由对应的观测资料来给定; 大气与海洋模式间的耦合采用异常耦合(anomaly coupling)。混合型耦合模式(Hybrid Coupled Models, HCMs)是另一类简化的海气耦合模式, 其中海洋或大气模式有一个分量模式采用了简化的距平类模式(类似于ICMs),而另一个分量模式则采用环流型模式(General Circulation Models, GCMs); 如可采用统计的大气风应力年际异常模式与OGCM间的耦合而构建一种HCMOGCM,也可采用简化的海洋距平类模式(如ICM中的海洋分量模式)与AGCM间的耦合而构建另一种HCMAGCM。历史上, ICMs、HCMs和CGCMs等这几类耦合模式都在ENSO理论体系的发展、数值模拟和实时预测等方面都起到了重要作用。本文主要回顾作者与合作者所研发的ICMs和HCMs的构建、特点和应用例子等。
关键词:  厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)  海气相互作用  中间型耦合模式  混合型耦合模式  ENSO模拟性能
DOI:10.11693/hyhz20230600120
分类号:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目,42030410号;崂山实验室科技创新项目,LSKJ202202402号;中国科学院战略性先导科技专项,XDB40000000号;南京信息工程大学人才启动经费项目。
附件
A REVIEW OF PROGRESS IN COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL DEVELOPMENTS FOR ENSO STUDIES: INTERMEDIATE COUPLED MODELS AND HYBRID COUPLED MODELS
ZHANG Rong-Hua1,2
1.School of Marine Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;2.Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao 266237, China
Abstract:
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest interannual signal that is produced by basin-scale processes in the tropical Pacific, with significant effects on worldwide weather and climate. In the past, extensive and intensive international efforts have been devoted to coupled model developments for ENSO studies. A hierarchy of coupled ocean-atmosphere models was formulated. In terms of their complexity, they can be categorized into intermediate coupled models (ICMs), hybrid coupled models (HCMs), and fully coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). ENSO modeling has made significant progress over the past decades, reaching a stage where coupled models can now be used to successfully predict ENSO events 6 months to one year in advance. Meanwhile, ENSO exhibits great diversity and complexity in nature as observed, which still cannot be adequately captured by current state-of-the-art coupled models, presenting a challenge to ENSO modeling. In this paper, the long-term efforts in ENSO modeling that has been made continually and steadily at different institutions in China were reviewed; some selected representative examples were presented to reflect current status in ENSO model developments and applications, which have been pursued actively with noticeable progress being made recently. As ENSO simulations are very sensitive to model formulations and process representations etc., dedicated efforts have been devoted to ENSO model developments and improvements. At present, different ocean-atmosphere coupled models are available in China, exhibiting good model performances and various applications for climate modeling, including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). However, large biases and uncertainties still exist in ENSO simulations and predictions, and there are clearly rooms for their improvements, which are still an active area of researches and applications. In addition, model performances of ENSO simulations were assessed in terms of advantages and disadvantages with these differently formulated coupled models, pinpointing to the areas where they need to be further improved for ENSO studies. These analyses provide valuable guidance for future improvements in ENSO simulations and predictions.
Key words:  El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)  interactions between the ocean and atmosphere  intermediate coupled models  coupled ocean-atmosphere models  ENSO simulation performance
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