| 摘要: |
| 南极小须鲸（Balaenoptera bonaerensis）作为顶级捕食者，在南大洋生态系统中起着重要调节作用。目前对南极小须鲸的研究大多集中在捕食和季节性迁移上，在栖息地分布以及气候变化对栖息地影响方面研究亟待补充。基于MaxEnt模型和CMIP6的数据，分析了当前情形以及不同排放情景下到 2040s和 2090s宇航员海南极小须鲸栖息地的分布和变化。研究结果表明，南极小须鲸主要分布在宇航员海的东部，当前的高度适生区占整个区域的 13.96%。深度、海冰密集度和混合层深度最小值是南极小须鲸分布的主要影响因子，三者的累积贡献为 60.5%。气候变化情景下南极小须鲸栖息地呈现缩小的趋势。高排放情景下南极小须鲸的栖息地面积减小更快，从 2040s到 2090s这个时期南极小须鲸的栖息地面积减小速率比从当前到 2040s快。到本世纪中期，所有情景下的宇航员海东部仍存在南极小须鲸的栖息地；到本世纪末，中排放情景和高排放情景下的宇航员海已不适合南极小须鲸生存，海冰密集度的减小是造成这一现象的主要原因。 |
| 关键词: 南极小须鲸 气候变化 宇航员海 栖息地 CMIP6 |
| DOI：10.11693/hyhz20220600163 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:青岛海洋科学与技术试点国家实验室山东省专项经费, 2022QNLM030002-1号；南极海域对气候变化的影响和响应, RFSOCC2020-2022-No.18号；国家自然科学基金项目, 42176198号 |
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| ANALYSIS OF ANTARCTIC MINKE WHALE (BALAENOPTERA BONAERENSIS) HABITAT CHANGES IN THE COSMONAUT SEA UNDER THE CMIP6 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS |
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LIN Shi-Ying1, ZHAO Liang1, LIU Lu-Lu1, FENG Jian-Long1,2
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1.College of Marine and Environmental Sciences,Tianjin University of Science and Technology;2.Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao
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| Abstract: |
| As an apex predator, the Antarctic minke whale (AMW) regulates the Southern Ocean ecology. The majority of current research on AMW has concentrated on feeding and seasonal migration, and further research on habitat distribution and the influence of climate change on habitat is urgently needed. Based on the reanalysis data and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in its sixth phase (CMIP6) data for the near future and far future, the suitable habitat of AMWs under current and in the future was evaluated using the MaxEnt model. Results showed that, AMWs suitable habitat mostly located in the eastern Cosmonaut Sea, with the highly suitable area accounting for 13.96% of the total area. The most important environmental variables that influenced the distribution of AMWs are depth, ice concentration, and mixed layer minimum thickness, with a combined contribution of 60.5% in total. Under three climate change scenarios, the habitat of AMWs will decline. Under the higher emission scenario, the suitable area of AMWs falls more quickly, and the suitable area of AMWs drops at a higher pace between the 2040s and the 2090s than between the present and the 2040s. In all scenarios, AMW habitats are still available in the eastern half of the Cosmonaut Sea in the 2040s; but, in the 2090s, the Cosmonaut Sea is no longer appropriate for AMW survival in the medium and high emission scenarios. This phenomena is mostly caused by a reduction in sea ice concentration. |
| Key words: Antarctic minke whale climate change Cosmonaut Sea habitat CMIP6 |