首页 | 期刊介绍 | 编委会 | 道德声明 | 投稿指南 | 常用下载 | 过刊浏览 | 期刊订阅 | In English
引用本文:
【打印本页】   【HTML】   【下载PDF全文】   查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器  关闭
←前一篇|后一篇→ 过刊浏览    高级检索
本文已被:浏览 40次   下载 0  
分享到: 微信 更多
珠江磨刀门河口水位与海平面、上游流量的联合分布关系异变研究
唐启邦, 欧素英, 蔡华阳, 杨清书
中山大学河口海岸研究所
摘要:
近30年来,珠江三角洲大规模挖沙及围垦等强人类活动显著改变了其地形边界,引起三角洲水文动力的异变。本文选取珠江磨刀门河口为主要研究区域,根据人类活动历程分成两个时段,即强人类活动前(1965-1985年)和强人类活动后(2000-2016年),研究月均水位与口外海平面、马口流量之间的联合分布依赖关系,探讨强人类活动对其联合分布关系的影响。结果表明:1)强人类活动后,河道地形下切显著,外海海平面对沿程各站水位的线性影响增强,上游马口流量对水位的线性影响减弱。2)强人类活动后甘竹至灯笼山站水位概率密度曲线明显左移,表明同概率水位事件较强人类活动前明显降低;三灶海平面概率密度曲线于强人类活动后右移,表明海平面呈上升趋势;强人类活动前后马口流量的概率密度分布变化较小,显示流量分布特性变化不明显。3)强人类活动后各站水位变化幅度变窄,水位与海平面或流量的依赖关系均有不同程度的减弱。在同一海平面概率下,各站水位基本呈下降趋势,但甘竹站和竹银站在较低的累计频率下对应的水位呈上升趋势。在高流量条件下(如洪季),水位基本上呈下降趋势,但甘竹站和竹银站在低累计频率下对应的水位上升;而低流量条件下(如枯季),甘竹、竹银和灯笼山站整体水位上升,但江门站整体水位呈下降趋势。4)基于三变量联合概率分布分析,在相同概率海平面及流量驱动下,强人类活动后各站水位均有明显下降,水位与海平面、流量遭遇概率为0.1-0.9时,其月均水位下降幅度达0.01-1.24m。低海平面和低流量联合驱动下各站月均水位的下降幅度明显小于高海平面和高流量联合驱动下月均水位的变幅,而且上游站位月均水位的下降幅度要明显大于下游站位。本研究成果可为强人类活动的影响辨识及珠三角水资源的合理配置和可持续发展利用等提供技术支撑。
关键词:  水位  人类活动  流量  海平面  Copula联合概率分布
DOI:10.11693/hyhz20191000194
分类号:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目),国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划),广东省水利科技创新项目
STUDY ON THE ABRUPT VARIATION OF JOINT DISTIBUTION OF WATER LEVEL, SEA LEVEL AND RIVER DISCHARGE IN THE MODAOMEN ESTUARY OF THE PERAL RIVER
tang qi bang, ou su ying, cai hua yang, yang qing shu
Institute of Estuarine and Coastal Research, Sun Yat-sen University
Abstract:
Over the last 30 years, human activities in the Pearl River Delta such as large-scale dredging and reclamation have significantly changed the topographic boundary of the Delta and have caused the change of its hydrological dynamics.In this study, we select the Modaomen estuary of the Pearl River as a typical study area, which was dramatically affected by the intensive human interventions.According to the process of human activities, the study period can be in principle divided into two distinct phases: before intensive human interventions?(1965-1985) and after intensive human interventions?(2000-2016). The influence of human activities on the hydrological processes was subsequently explored by studying the dependencies?of?joint distribution between??the monthly?averaged water?level, sea level outside the estuary?and?the?river discharge?observed at?Makou?hydrological station.The results?show?that:?1) After?intensive human interventions,?river-bed was substantially deepened. The impact of?sea?level?on?the?monthly averaged water?level?observed at?each?station was considerably enhanced, while the impact of river?discharge?observed at?Makou?station?on?the?monthly?averaged water level at other stations was weakened. 2)?The?water?level?probability?curves obtained at Ganzhu and Denglongshan stations?shifted?significantly?to?the?left?after?intensive human interventions, which indicates a lower?water?level under the?same?probability event. The?sea level probability curve??of Sanzao station shifted to the right?after?intensive human interventions,?which indicates that?the sea level is showing an increasing trend. The change of probability?distribution of river discharge observed at?Makou station displayed no apparent change after intensive human interventions, which indicates that?the?change?of?the?discharge?distribution?characteristics was minimum. 3)?After the the?intensive?human interventions, the?water?level?distribtuion?in?each?station was narrowed,?and the?dependence between water level and sea?level?or?river discharge?was considerably?weakened. For given identical?probability?of?sea?level,?the?water?levels observed at Ganzhu and?Zhuyin stations show?an?increasing?trend?at?a?lower?cumulative?frequency, while other stations show a decreasing trend. Under?the?high?discharge condition? ?(such as wet?season) the corresponding water level of?Ganzhu?and?Zhuyin?stations?rise?under?the?low cumulative frequency, while other stations show a decreasing trend. Under?the?low?discharge condition?(such as dry?season), the overall water levels observed at Ganzhu, Zhuyin and Denglongshan?stations rise, although Jiangmen?station?shows?a?decreasing?trend.4)?Based?on?the joint probability distribution of three variables, it can be seen that for the?same?probability?of river discharge and sea level, the water levels observed at all?stations?decreased?apparently?after intensive?human interventions. When the encounter probability of water level-sea level and water?level-river discharge?ranging between 0.1-0.9,?the? monthly?averaged water?levels?decreased by 0.01-1.24m. The?alteration?under?the condition?of?low?sea?level?and?low?discharge?is?significantly lower?than those for high?sea?level and?high?discharge. In addition, the monthly averaged water levels observed at upstream stations decreased significantly more than those of downstream stations. The results obtained from this study can provide technical support for the assessment?of?the impact from?intensive human interventions and?the sustainable development and?utilization of water resources in?the Pearl River Delta.
Key words:  water level  Human activities  river discharge  Sea level  Copula joint probability distribution
版权所有 《海洋与湖沼》编辑部 Copyright©2008 All Rights Reserved
主管单位:中国科学技术协会 主办单位:中国海洋湖沼学会 中国科学院海洋研究所
地址:青岛市南海路七号  邮编:266071  电话:0532-82898753  E-mail:ols@qdio.ac.cn
技术支持:北京勤云科技发展有限公司