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南太平洋副热带偶极子模式模拟评估
王卓越, 郑建, 王法明, 杨宇星
中国科学院海洋研究所
摘要:
利用CMIP5模式模拟数据评估了模式模拟南太平洋副热带偶极子(South Pacific Subtropical Dipole, SPSD)时空分布的效果,结果表明:2/3的模式都可以模拟出完整的SPSD生成发展过程,且SPSD的主要区域与观测较为接近,但1/3的模式在模拟强度、位置与观测有较大出入;模式在模拟SPSD生成阶段时比观测提前一个月出现偶极模态,1/4的模式海温偶极异常可以追溯到6个月之前;潜热通量与海温的时空分布显示,潜热通量是影响偶极模态生成发展的主要因素。模态的变化主要受大气环流的调制,在模态发展最强时部分模式的正极上方有正潜热通量异常,即海洋向大气传递热量。分析显示模式在模拟海气耦合方面海温模拟偏强,气压方面与观测较为接近。
关键词:  CMIP5模式,南太平洋副热带偶极子,热力耦合,大气环流
DOI:10.11693/hyhz20180700185
分类号:
基金项目:
EVALUATION OF MODELS'' WITH SOUTH PACIFIC DIPOLE MODE SIMULATIONS
Wang Zhuoyue, Zheng Jian, Wang Faming, Yang Yuxing
Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Science
Abstract:
Based on the 15 models in the Phase 5 of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project(CMIP5) simulation, the present study assessed the temporal and spatial distribution results of the South Pacific Subtropical Dipole (SPSD). The results show that: 2/3 models can simulate the complete SPSD. The development process is generated, and the main areas of SPSD are close to the observations, but 1/3 models have large differences in simulating the SPSD intensity, position with observation; CMIP5 modes exhibit the dipole mode one month ahead of the observation in the SPSD generation phase, and 1/3 modes'' sea surface temperature dipole anomaly can be traced back to 6 months in advance; According to the temporal and spatial distribution of latent heat flux and sea surface temperature, latent heat flux is the main factor affecting the development of SPSD. The model changes are mainly modulated by the atmospheric circulation anomaly. When the SPSD develops to mature, some models show a positive latent heat flux anomaly over the positive pole, which means that the ocean will feedback the atmospheric circulation through the latent heat flux thus form a negative feedback circulation. The analysis shows that the sea temperature simulation in CMIP5 models is stronger than observation in simulating air-sea coupling, but close to the observation in simulating sea surface pressure.
Key words:  CMIP5 Models  SPSD  Thermodynamic coupling  Atmospheric Circulation
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