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| 海平面上升的灾害效应、风险评估及应对策略 |
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周健1,2, 于道德3, 李琼2, 朱现晔2, 李莉4, 杨韫琪2, 吴志宏2
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1.中国矿业大学, 江苏 徐州 221116;2.山东省海洋预报减灾中心, 山东 青岛 266061;3.山东省海洋科学研究院, 山东 青岛 266061;4.山东省国土空间数据和遥感技术研究院, 山东 济南 250002
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| 摘要: |
| 海平面上升是一种全球性、缓发性的海洋灾害,其广泛和深入的影响对人类社会发展带来严重挑战,受到学界普遍关注,但当前研究普遍存在灾害效应分析孤立割裂、风险评估体系差异明显、防范应对存在局限等问题。基于此,本文通过归纳梳理国内外海平面上升相关文献资料,系统总结了海平面上升所诱发的风暴潮增水、海岸侵蚀、海水/咸潮入侵、湿地退化等不同类型灾害效应及其机制的研究成果,并从灾害管理角度阐述了海平面上升风险评估、应对策略的研究现状与前沿动态,最后展望了未来研究趋向。未来研究应在健全完善调查监测体系的基础上,推进海平面上升影响综合研究及量化评价,总结凝练经典研究范式,推进灾害链式协同防治,强化动态风险预测评估,提升滨海地区适应气候变化扰动的韧性,推进海平面上升应对与管理能力现代化。 |
| 关键词: 海平面上升 灾害效应 风险评估 灾害管理 应对策略 |
| DOI：10.11759/hykx20240903003 |
| 分类号:X43;P76 |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3106000);山东省自然科学基金资助项目(ZR2023QD174) |
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| Disaster effects, risk assessment, and countermeasures of sea level rise |
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ZHOU Jian1,2, YU Daode3, LI Qiong2, ZHU Xianye2, LI Li4, YANG Yunqi2, WU Zhihong2
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1.China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China;2.Shandong Marine Forecast and Hazard Mitigation Service, Qingdao 266061, China;3.Marine Science Research Institute of Shandong Province, Qingdao 266061, China;4.Shandong Institute of Territorial Space Data and Remote Sensing Technology, Jinan 250002, China
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| Abstract: |
| Sea level rise is a global and gradual marine disaster that poses significant challenges to human societal development due to its extensive and profound impacts. Consequently, it has received considerable attention from researchers. However, several challenges persist in the findings of this study, including the isolation of studies on disaster effects, notable differences in risk assessment systems, and limitations in prevention and response strategies. This study delineates the achievements and advances in research on sea level rise. It systematically summarizes the findings on the hazardous effects induced by sea level rise, such as storm surge, coastal erosion, saline intrusion, and wetland degradation, as well as their underlying mechanisms. From a disaster management perspective, this study elaborates on the research status and emerging trends in risk assessment and response strategies for sea level rise impacts. Finally, the limitations of this study are explored, and future research directions are outlined. The study reveals that the current investigation on the impact of sea level rise faces challenges such as fragmented research on disaster effects, significant differences in risk assessment systems, and limited prevention and response measures. Future research should focus on improving investigation and monitoring infrastructure, promoting comprehensive research and quantitative assessment, refining research methodologies, promoting coordinated disaster prevention and control, strengthening dynamic risk prediction and evaluation, enhancing the resilience of coastal areas against climate change-induced disruptions, and advancing the modernization of capacities to tackle and manage rising sea level. |
| Key words: sea level rise hazard effect risk assessment coastal resilience hazard management coping strategies |