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引用本文:赵堂麒,李晓敏,张杰,张素铭,侯琪,杜雪雪.适用于风暴潮淹没范围和深度快速估计的无源淹没方法改进[J].海洋科学,2024,48(12):1-.
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适用于风暴潮淹没范围和深度快速估计的无源淹没方法改进
赵堂麒1, 李晓敏2, 张杰1,2, 张素铭1, 侯琪1, 杜雪雪1
1.中国石油大学(华东) 海洋与空间信息学院, 山东 青岛 266580;2.自然资源部 第一海洋研究所, 山东 青岛 266061
摘要:
风暴潮是中国最严重的海洋灾害, 风暴潮淹没范围和深度是指示灾害严重程度的关键指标,对风暴潮淹没范围和深度的快速准确估计对于风暴潮灾害风险评估和应急处置至关重要。目前应用于淹没范围和深度快速估计的主要是基于GIS技术, 包括无源淹没方法和有源淹没方法两种。无源淹没方法适用于大区域, 但目前主要应用于暴雨事件; 而用于风暴潮淹没估计的主要是有源淹没方法, 但其在大区域估计时运行速度慢。为提出一种可用于大区域风暴潮淹没范围和深度快速估计的无源淹没方法, 本文结合有源淹没方法思想, 对无源淹没方法进行适用性改进,, 并以近10 a对浙江影响最严重的1909号台风风暴潮“利奇马”为实例, 对所改进方法的适用性和可靠性进行了验证。结果表明, 基于本文改进方法得到的“利奇马”台风风暴潮淹没范围估计值与基于Sentinel-1B影像得到的淹没范围提取值相比, MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error, 平均绝对百分比误差)为20%; 在“利奇马”造成的灾害损失方面, 基于本文改进方法得到的损失估计值与《浙江省海洋灾害公报》记录的损失值相比, 海岸工程损失和水产养殖损失的MAPE分别为21%和3%。上述对比结果说明本文改进的无源淹没方法应用于风暴潮淹没范围和深度快速估计具有可靠性。最后将本文提出的改进方法应用于2011—2021年影响浙江省的26次风暴潮淹没范围和深度估计, 淹没结果呈现出浙江沿海南北部大于中部、海湾河口地区大于岛屿地区的特征, 与浙江风暴潮发生规律一致。该方法不仅可在未来风暴潮事件发生前快速给出不同可能情景下的风暴潮淹没范围和深度, 为风暴潮灾害的应急处置和防灾减灾提供决策参考, 还可对大量的风暴潮历史事件进行淹没范围和深度估计, 用于风暴潮灾害发生特征分析。
关键词:  风暴潮  淹没范围和深度快速估计  GIS技术  无源淹没  有源淹没
DOI:10.11759/hykx20230128002
分类号:X43
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3105102号)
Improvement of the passive inundation method for rapid estimation of storm surge inundation range and depth
ZHAO Tangqi1, LI Xiaomin2, ZHANG Jie1,2, ZHANG Suming1, HOU Qi1, DU Xuexue1
1.School of Ocean and Spatial Information, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, China;2.First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources of China, Qingdao 266061, China
Abstract:
Storm surge is the most severe marine disaster in China, with the range and depth of inundation serving as key indicators of its severity. Rapid and accurate estimation of these parameters is crucial for effective risk assessment and emergency response. Currently, GIS technology is mainly used to estimate inundation range and depth via both passive and active inundation methods. The passive inundation method is suitable for large areas but is predominantly applied to heavy rain events. The active inundation method, while commonly used for storm surge inundation estimation, is slower in large-area assessments. An improved passive inundation method based on the active inundation method is proposed to quickly estimate the range and depth of storm surge inundation in large areas. The applicability and reliability of this improved method are verified by applying it to Typhoon “Lekima” of 1909, which had the most severe impact on Zhejiang Province in the past 10 years. The results show that the inundation range of the “Lekima” storm surge, estimated using the improved method, compared with the range extracted from Sentinel-1B images, yields a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 20%. Regarding the disaster losses caused by Typhoon “Lekima, ” the MAPE for coastal engineering losses and aquaculture losses estimated using the improved method in this study is 21% and 3%, respectively, compared with the losses recorded in the Zhejiang Marine Disaster Bulletin. These comparison results demonstrate that the improved passive inundation method is reliable for estimating the range and depth of storm surge inundation. Finally, the improved method is applied to estimate the inundation range and depth of 26 storm surges that affected Zhejiang Province from 2011 to 2021. The inundation results indicate that the northern and southern coastal areas of Zhejiang Province experience greater inundation than the central areas, and the estuarine areas are more affected than the island areas, which aligns with the typical patterns of storm surge occurrences in the province. This method enables rapid estimation of the range and depth of storm surge inundation under various potential scenarios before future storm surge events, providing a valuable reference for decision-making in emergency response, prevention, and mitigation. The method also allows for the estimation of inundation range and depth for numerous historical storm surge events, enabling further analysis of the characteristics of storm surge disasters.
Key words:  storm surge  rapid estimation of inundation range and depth  GIS technology  passive inundation  active inundation
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