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浙江省三疣梭子蟹产量波动及潜在影响因素分析
胡荧斌, 徐美佳, 王天姿, 何毓钦, 王迎宾
浙江海洋大学
摘要:
依据2000年至2015年浙江省三疣梭子蟹渔获量的数据,以及影响渔获量的因素(管理类因素、环境类因素和营养关系类因素等共11个因子),使用广义加性模型(GAM)对各类因素对三疣梭子蟹渔获量的影响进行了分析。结果显示,赤潮面积、捕捞努力量和放流数量对三疣梭子蟹渔获量影响显著(P<0.01)。3个因子的累积解释比率达98.3%,其中,赤潮的解释比率最大,达到47.2%,捕捞努力量的解释比率为37.8%,放流数量的解释比率为13.3%。三疣梭子蟹渔获量随着赤潮面积增加有所减少,随着捕捞努力量的加大有迅速增加的趋势,与放流尾数呈现正相关趋势。三疣梭子蟹渔获量的波动受诸多因素的影响。今后需开展更深入的研究,找到可能影响三疣梭子蟹渔获量的其他关键因素。
关键词:  三疣梭子蟹  渔获量  浙江  广义加性模型(GAM)  影响因子
DOI:10.11759/hykx20181007001
分类号:
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)
Analysis of yield fluctuation and potential influencing factors of portola trilophilla from zhejiang province
huyingbin, xumeijia, wangtianzi, heyuqin, wangyingbin
Zhejiang Ocean University
Abstract:
The impacts of factors on the catch of Portunus trituberculatus were analyzed using generalized additive model (GAM) based on the catch data and some affecting catch factors data (11 factors including management factors, environmental factors and nutritional relationship factors) from 2000 to 2015. The results showed that the area of red tide, the fishing effort and the quantity of releasing can significantly impact the catch of P. trituberculatus (P<0.01). The cumulative interpretation rate of the 3 factors reached 98.3%, in which the interpretation ratio of the red tide is 47.2%, the fishing effort is 37.8%, and the quantity of releasing is 13.3%. The catch of P. trituberculatus gradually decreased with the increase of red tide area, and is significantly increased with the increase of fishing effort. The catch is also positively correlated with the quantity of releasing.Fluctuations in the catch of Portunus trituberculatus are affected by many factors. We need more in-depth research to find other key factors that may affect the catch of P. trituberculatus.
Key words:  Portunus trituberculatus  Catch  Zhejiang province  Generalized additive model (GAM)  Impact factor
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